Lottery Gambling Analysis, Mathematics, Probabilities, Odds, House Edge, Fraud
Probably consultants hired by the casinos know, secretly, about the real nature of
odds. In December of 1995, I was playing Keno at the Taj Mahal casino in Atlantic City. Among other
numbers, I played 11(related to a lovely lady). I always write down the drawings, so I
noticed easily that number 11 was not appearing. I counted 7 consecutive drawings without
number 11. The casino plays 80 Keno numbers, drawing 20 at a time. Therefore, the
probability for each number to come out is 20/80, equal to 1/4. Look at the column p=1/4
in the table. Each Keno number will hit within 8 drawings with a probability
of 90%. The degree of certainty is between 95% and 99% that each number will hit between
10 and 16 drawings - if it did not hit before that. In my case, if number 11 had not hit
even after 10 drawings, then it would have been the right time to bet big on it. You know what happened? I could not play! A Keno official announced the public that the Keno game was suspended for an unspecified length of time! I am sure they had noticed the special attention I paid to the game. At the same time, I suspect they have a computer trigger that warns the Keno officials when a number has been idle for too long... That, of course, would be illegal.
The data presented here is the result of my researching the lottery. I wonder if other people, with knowledge of mathematics and a similar interest have reached similar results. It is possible, since the bankruptcy formula relies on one and only one element: individual probability.
I simply analyzed the probability p from various perspectives: win N consecutive drawings; lose N consecutive drawings; not to lose N consecutive drawings; win within N consecutive drawings.
• Actually, that approach would have been the most costly method of using my own gambling formula. I have researched a large amount of lottery data since that casino incident. Waiting for long overdue losing streaks to switch to winning will cause spending more than winning. On the contrary, it is best to look for losing streaks equal to or less than the median value.
••• I am surprised that no online casino has denied the validity of my remarks one year after I made these comments public. I have noticed some reactions nevertheless. Some online casinos advertise now that their games are “truly random” or “100% random”. Some casinos claim that the randomness of their games has been certified by some independent judging entity. Things are still very complicated to verify and validate. Even the brick-and-mortar casinos offer now some slot games that raise questions (to me, at least). I tried a few slot-based blackjack games in several casinos. Clearly to me, the machine computer chips are programmed differently for different situations. It is easy to notice that the game slows down visibly when the player doubles down and especially when the player places the maximum bet. This statement is very easy to verify! Now, my question is: Why the slowing down of the game in such situations? There is no explanation for that in the game rules. It is fair to interpret that the machine tries two or three (maybe more) hands until the machine wins! Because the machine wins, by far, most of the maximum bets! The programmed routine can go like this: the machine draws the first hand; if the player would be a winner, the machine draws the second hand; if the player still wins, the machine draws yet another hand; maybe a forth hand… I cannot find a reasonable explanation why the machine wins so many more maximum bets and why the game slows down in such betting situations. The online casinos may use this “technique” as well. If I am wrong, I am asking for an explanation. As I said, I have seen no denial and no explanation from those to whom it may concern. Again, I reiterate my warning: Player beware! Stay tuned…
•••
The table in the last page also tells you that 99.9% of all the players in the world lose
regardless of the game of chance they play. If you are mentally tough, try this
experiment. Keep strict records of all your lottery tickets and prizes. After one year,
you'll notice that you lost $50 for every $100 played. That ratio is valid for 9 out of 10
years - if you are so patient and keep such records. This is certainty for all the players
who rely on luck only in beating the odds. This material makes it very clear that every
player needs a lot of help, in the form of a playing strategy. It is similar to the stock
brokers who need and use some forms of strategy. I want everybody to know that I devised a
probability strategy and it is absolutely free to anybody with a personal computer.
Repeat, totally free, no strings attached. The program is called MDIEditor and
Lotto for Windows 95/NT. It can be downloaded from the Internet from
Ziff-Davis Software Library (hotfiles.com), The Microsoft Network, LotterySciences.com,
etc. Look for version 5.11 or later. Pay attention to the reports
generated by the application and you will diminish the odds considerably. Otherwise, you
have almost no chance in fighting against the formula of...bankruptcy.
••• As presented on the previous page (Gambling Formula), playing the government-run lotteries is the worst type of gambling. I believe that the reason for that is the fact the lottery commissions consider the players to be both wimps and mathematical idiots. But we are neither, are we? We know the fundamental truth, we have science on our side. Let's make our voice heard. Otherwise, the lotteries will turn worse, and worse, and worse for the player. Just recently, Pennsylvania Lottery introduced a new game (Super 6) with extremely high odds: about 120 million to one! Even worse, the player is only allowed to choose his/her own numbers for one out of three tickets. Well, that basically means that your odds worsen by two-thirds (66.7%)! You should never, ever play games in which you may not select your own numbers! For this reason alone, I always strongly advise against playing the casino slot machines. Still, the one-armed bandits are ruled by a 10% house advantage, while the state lotteries punish us with a 50% to 90%+ house edge (5 to 19 times worse)!
••• You have read on the home page that hateful reaction to my ideas and computer programs is possible -- as a result of the FearSurvival system. Homo homini lupus... Human is a wolf to human (no sexism allowed).
A brief presentation of the house edge in a 6/69 lotto game.
The mathematical (theoretical) odds:
· ' 0 of 6 ' -> 1 in 1.8
· ' 1 of 6 ' -> 1 in 2.8
· ' 2 of 6 ' -> 1 in 13.4
· ' 3 of 6 ' -> 1 in 150.9
· ' 4 of 6 ' -> 1 in 4,092.1
· ' 5 of 6 ' -> 1 in 317,136.2
· ' 6 of 6 ' -> 1 in 119,877,472
The player chooses one combination per $1 and the lottery commission adds two free combinations automatically. Thus, the above odds are three times lower (better!). But the house advantage is still shocking!
For the '6 of 6' prize (jackpot) the odds are: '119,877,472/3 to 1' or 39,959,157 to 1. The official value of the payout is 2,000,000. The house edge is 1 – 2,000,000/39,959,157 = 95%!!!! If the house advantage at 00-roulette is 5%, the lotto percentage advantage is 19 times worse!
For the '4 of 6' prize the odds are: '4,092/3 to 1' or 1364 to 1. The last value of the payout that I saw was $55. The house edge is 1 – 55/1364 = 96%!!!!
I looked at the '3 of 6' prize. It's a deception! The commission pays $2 per winning combination. The odds are 151/3=50.3 to 1. The house advantage is still 1-2/50.3=96%. The problem with this prize is ethical. Virtually no player will cash in the prize. They will play again, probably 'quick picks'. Virtually all of them will lose the next drawing. Why would the commissions do something like that is beyond me. They should distribute the '3 of 6' prize money to the '4 of 6' prize pool. That would slash in half the house advantage for the more popular '4 of 6' prize.
There is a plethora of terms describing the additional obstacle the players face. 'House advantage', 'house edge', 'percentage advantage', 'takeout', 'vigourish' (?)… I think of a unified term, defined with more precision. The lottery commissions " take out" 50% of ticket sales, therefore distributing 50% to prizes. But the 'house edge' is not necessarily 50%: It depends on a specific game and prize. The best term is player's disadvantage. For example, in a lotto 6/49 game, the odds of winning the jackpot are '1 in 13,983,816'; if the winner is paid $1,000,000 for a $1 winning ticket, the player's disadvantage is {1 – 1000000/13983816} = {1 – 0.0715) = 92.8%. At the double-zero roulette, the probability of winning a straight-up bet is '1 in 38'. The casino plays $36 for a $1 winning bet. The player's disadvantage is {1 – 36/38} = {1 – 0.9474} = 5.26%.
I suggest:
•• We never, ever play games in which we are not allowed to choose our own numbers, or digits, or any other type of outcome.
•• The lotteries must lower their unreasonably high house advantage to no higher than 30%. According to mathematics (the formula presented on the previous page), 30% house edge represents the 50-50 chance for the player. We should call it the lower line of fairness. We are not willing to bend below it.
•• The state lotteries must eliminate the obscene prizes, such as: free ticket, or prizes between $1 to $5. Such prizes are a sort of mockery, sand in the eyes... The lotteries must have no more than 4 prize categories, with a diminished first prize (the so-called jackpot). Higher second and third prizes will be more attractive to the player. Consequently, there will be a higher number of players, higher sales for the lotteries, and also a better return for the player.
•• We will let the state lotteries know that we know of better types of gambling, such as the stock market, or casino gambling. We'll take our money to less risky places.
The first version of this program was weak, by latest version standards. Yet the program was posted immediately by some Web sites because of its intrinsic value. Then I added more and more powerful features, making it a better and better application. As a result, one reputable site -- ZDNet -- refused to post the upgrades! Why? Of course, some guys wanted to keep the program as secret as possible and use it for themselves only. I reacted on my Web site and they finally posted the updates. But not without resentment. They rated MDIEditor and Lotto as lowly as the first version. Then the reviews turned from bad to worse. The latest review of the application simply advises users not to consider trying the program at all! I alerted the upper management of the site and they realized that something was unfair and wrong. At least, they present now the most important features of the application, features that had been intentionally left out in previous reviews. Then I tried to post what used to be the licensed version of SuperPower$. A very long time had passed without the upgrade being accepted. I insisted on an answer. The response seemed strange: they claimed they believed it was a pirate version, or something like that! The offer was too good to be true, right? Not! They simply didn't want that piece of lottery software in too many hands!
On November 10, 1999, some at ZDNet did it again, even lower this time. They subtracted from total download counts of my software! "SuperPower$" had 2,922 downloads on Nov. 9, but the following day the downloads were 2,813! "MDIEditor and Lotto" had 6,837 downloads on November 9, 1999 but only 6,777 the following day. Get it? My software should not have big download numbers and therefore look popular despite the bad reviews! I had started to write down the downloads numbers because some users had brought to my attention that they had downloaded my software without the download counts being changed at all the following day.
“ZDNet Downloads” reset the counters to arbitrary numbers. Then, on June 4, 2001 my “friends” @ ZDNet Downloads reset both counters to zero! The info pages read: ”Downloads: New Upload”! That's a lie! The last upload was August 1999. “SuperPower$” was last uploaded in October 1999! (It was still a “New Upload” as of June 6, 2001!)
Curiously, I saw other packages in the same category – Lottery – with download counters over 50,000! Why other packages are not struck by HTML programming woes? They probably get “manual” increases to their counters?
All of this started, in my opinion, with the inclusion of the “Fundamental Formula of Gambling” with “MDIEditor and Lotto”. I assume that one (or few more) individuals in charge with the “Gambling/Lottery” downloads have a strong interest in gambling/lottery. They might even have a gambling addiction. They probably used several so-called gambling systems and/or lottery programs. For certain, they were hugely disappointed. Then, all of a sudden, the fundamental formula of gambling proved a mathematical way to win consistently. The “individuals” did not want the good news spread. I believe they have a form of gambling addiction because they kept doing disservice to my software, despite the risks. They keep doing that. Despite the obvious fact that many people visit my website and get all the info and software for free, anyway. And despite the possible warnings from the top management at ZDNet…
The morale: You should give serious consideration to MDIEditor and Lotto and SuperPower$. You may not have heard about my software. Why? You may not want to tell other people about it, although you'll be using it!...
•••
For the best mathematical casino gambling strategy (approach) for non-system players, read:
Casino, Casinos: Gambling, Gamble, Win, Winning in Casino.
Gambling, Probability, Mathematics, Theory, Gamble, Games.
•
All the download links for SuperPower and MDIEditor and Lotto are located on the Help on Software for Lottery, Lotto, Gambling: Download, Install, Run, Maintain Results Files page. The Help page contains also information on downloading, installing, and running my software. The Terms, Prices, Licensed or Free, Custom Programming, Source Code for Lotto, Lottery Software, Casino Gambling Systems page. It always posts the latest on availability and pricing of LotWon software and gambling systems. Also, the World Message Board: Forum for Lotto, Lottery, Gambling, Software, Systems, Philosophy is a good place to check out from time to time. Other users of my software and myself post useful tips. All new pages are added there and can be accessed from that folder.
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